USDJPY Daily Analysis Based on Main Key Levels – 31 March 2025

Daily Current Market Price (DCMP): 148.871

🗝️ Critical Price Framework

Below DCMP (Support):

🟢 148.287 (Structural Swing Low Anchor)

🟢 148.995 (Liquidity-Driven Base)

Above DCMP (Resistance):

🔴 150.140 (Immediate Swing High)

🔴 150.848 (Multi-Session Barrier)

🌐 Market Context

Swing Levels:

◼ Structural Swing High: 151.306

◼ Structural Swing Low: 148.174

Fibonacci Framework:

▫ 61.8% Retracement Zone: 149.302–149.663 (Reversal Watch)

▫ 127.2% Extension Threshold: 150.247 (Breakout Catalyst)

📊 Technical Momentum Snapshot

✅ RSI Divergence: Neutral at 53.1, suggesting equilibrium

✅ MACD Signal: Flatlined near zero with fading bullish momentum

✅ Volume Cluster: Heavy activity at 148.717–149.432 range

💡 Trade Idea 1: Intraday Buy Setup

Entry: 🎯148.287 (Confluence of Swing Low & Order Block)

Stop Loss: ⚠️147.900 (Below Liquidity Pool)

Take Profit 1: 🏁149.432 (Immediate Resistance)

Take Profit 2: 🚩150.140 (Breakout Acceleration Zone)

Rationale:

Bullish divergence on 4H chart at 148.200–148.300

Positive yield spread between US-JP 10Y bonds

💡 Trade Idea 2: Intraday Sell Setup

Entry: 🎯150.848 (Confluence of Swing High & Fib Extension)

Stop Loss: ⚠️151.193 (Above Multi-Session High)

Take Profit 1: 🏁149.663 (Retracement Base)

Take Profit 2: 🚩148.995 (Liquidity Grab Zone)

Rationale:

Bearish engulfing pattern at 150.800–150.900

BOJ intervention risks above 151.000

📉 Strategic Observations

Price Magnetism:

Institutional orders clustered at 149.432 (200-period EMA)

Sentiment Shift:

Rising USD hedging activity ahead of FOMC minutes

Risk Factor:

Friday’s US Core PCE data may amplify volatility

🔭 Forward Guidance

Monitor:

◼ Sustained close above 150.140 → Targets 150.848

◼ Breakdown below 148.287 → Opens 147.900 retest

Note: Use 1:3 risk-reward ratio with trailing stops. Confirm trades with closing price breaks beyond key levels.

📌 Key Insight:

USDJPY consolidates between 148.287–150.140. Execute fade strategies at tested technical boundaries with tight 0.8% risk tolerance, prioritizing liquidity-driven moves.